In Mirpur, two concerning trends are once again present.
Even if India's top four batsmen are not as productive as they once were and the opposition has been able to recover from difficult batting positions, India may yet prevail in this match. The third day of play at Mirpur was like a teaser in which what were once far-off skies steadily turn darker. In reality, they are still favorites to win this Test since their in-form batters have yet to come out to bat.
This team is undergoing change. They lack a fit skipper, their primary bowlers are frequently unavailable, and their key hitters are past their prime. India has had three captains in seven Test matches this year alone. Due to fitness concerns and the odd dubious selection, there is a revolving door in the bowling department.
This group is not the same as the ruthless, clinical team that used to never relinquish an advantage. India has had four opportunities to win Test matches this year, but they have lost three of those opportunities and are 45 for 4 chasing 145 in the fourth.
On day three at Mirpur, where India essentially had Bangladesh at 26 for 6 in the third innings thanks to their 87-run lead in the first innings, two concerning themes returned.
Although India did not always maintain a lid on the scoring rate during their winning streak, they never gave up partnerships. They used to seem to know when to bowl dry and when to attack harder on instinct. There are numerous instances of this, not the least of which being Johannesburg's victory in 2017–18, during which Hashim Amla and Dean Elgar contributed 119 runs for the second wicket in a chase of 241, but they never let the game get away from them, moving along at little over two an over. After being bowled out on day one in Bengaluru in 2016–17, India bowled with a similar level of control against Australia on day two.
Worryingly, teams have been able to push back from difficult positions this year and do so at a faster rate than India has been able to slow.
India lost in 67.4 and 63.3 overs in the first and second Tests of the year in Johannesburg, respectively, despite defending 239 and 211, respectively. Instead of just bowling well for extended periods of time, which had previously brought them success, they went looking for wickets. England completed the 378 run chase at Edgbaston in 76.4 overs, or about five per over.
The speed at which Bangladesh increased their run total to make a match of it was more important in Mirpur than it was elsewhere. That, along with a little luck, as evidenced by Virat Kohli missing three and a half catches, is part of the essence of counterattacks, but when Bangladesh did launch one, it didn't appear as like they were taking many chances.
India bowled effectively in the third innings overall. However, throughout the two partnerships that gave Bangladesh 106 runs in 20.4 overs, they regularly failed to bowl to their fields, giving up simple boundaries despite in-and-out fields. In fact, they generated false replies more frequently than Bangladesh did in the fourth.
India's lack of a third spinner, which appears to be the result of misreading the pitch, didn't help. India rarely had the ability to use two spinners in tandem until Axar Patel bowled a 19-over, uninterrupted session.
If one of the four captures holds on another day—we're not talking about this—that might just be enough to hide the other tiny cloud in the distance. The Nos. 5 through 8 have had to save this team's batting order more times than either they or their leadership will find acceptable.
Only South Africa, Bangladesh, and the West Indies have poorer rankings since the year 2020 began than India's top four, which have an average score of 31.58. The opponent top 4 has only slightly outperformed India in the games it has played over this time span, which suggests that the opposition has played in challenging environments.
After a certain point, batters can only accomplish so much if the bowling is accurate in challenging circumstances. That is how Test cricket operates. The batting cloud is not as gloomy as it might seem, unless India's bowlers have been significantly superior than the opposition's over this time.
It remains a cloud. From 2016 to 2020, when India dominated Test cricket, their top four averaged somewhat more than 50 against slightly more than 25 for the opposition. Therefore, batting has improved over the past two years, barring a significant decline in bowling. Since the beginning of 2020, Kohli has been averaging in the 20s, Cheteshwar Pujara is hardly in his 30s, and Rohit Sharma is the only one who is in his 40s.
In comparison to the four preceding golden years, there has been a sharp decline in the averages of India's top four, and a slight increase in the top four of the opposition.
The precise handling of a transition is necessary, and India's hopes of winning the World Test Championship depend on winning four of the next five tests, including this one. Normally, you would assume that India is the favorite to win the match because the final four Tests would be played at home, where they have only lost two matches in the previous ten years. However, considering their home record, this batting transition and the rare bowling lapse can make their supporters more anxious than they should be.